I feel what may seem to some to be the curious need to give to our American friends my explanation, from this side of the pond, of why Trump won so handsomely.
Obviously I’m an outsider, not an American, and also not someone who follows the intricacies of day-to-day politics either in the US or even here in the UK. But we all live too much in our own tribal “silos” - me included. But I have the feeling that the tribal silo of nice, educated, probably Democratic, people in the States is even more robustly defended against outsiders than is our equivalent over here. Hence my feeling that it’s not entirely ridiculous for me to say what I think.
The first thing to say is that, very often, even normally, elections are lost rather than won. I’m certainly not the first person to have hit on this truth. I forget where I first came across it. But our recent general election in the UK was clearly an example. The Tories lost it. Sir Kier Starmer plainly didn’t win it on the basis of his appeal, partly because he never felt the need to articulate whatever his appeal was meant to be. Probably wisely.
How does this apply to the United States? Does it help to explain the Trump victory. I think it does.
Many will point to the perceived inadequacy of the Democratic candidate, allied to the confusion that surrounded Biden’s health and his late withdrawal from the race. Obviously both were factors, but I think it goes deeper.
My view from this side of the Atlantic - which may sound surprising - is that the Democratic party has become the party of the well-to-do and the establishment. My view is, I confess, influenced by the way in which the liberal and left-leaning parties in Britain have developed during the course of my lifetime. In my young days, I certainly regarded them as the supporters of the underdog or, as we said then, the working classes. But recently, they had a rather similar shock when Boris Johnson won a massive victory on the back of strong support from working class districts in the north of England.
The Democratic party in the US and the left-leaning parties over here have become the natural home of educated, civilised people, frankly the upper echelons of society, those who don’t have to worry about how they will be able to pay the rent - or the electricity bill.
Why this has happened is a deeper question - for another time! But the consequence is that these parties, unsurprisingly, favour and promote the kind of idealistic causes that tend to appeal to such people: preserving the environment; saving the planet; fighting climate change; supporting minorities; all worthy-sounding ideals.
The problem is that these causes don’t necessarily rank at the top of the concerns, in the US, of ordinary Americans. They want to know who might help them pay the bills; and who is more likely to enforce the laws about illegal immigration. They are quicker to note that some of these worthy objectives have a cost - and, more important, a cost to them, a cost that will hit them harder than it hits the political leaders who promote them.
I suspect that the working class Americans, as well as the black and Latino Americans who voted for Trump - whatever they think about those of his characteristics that (understandably) offend the educated elites - have lost faith in the ability of the Democrats to focus on their concerns.
As already indicated, it seems to me that the Democrats lost it, basically because they lost sight of their real role - to support ordinary Americans and in particular ordinary working-class Americans.
Tony Herbert
15 November 2024
Comments