CLIMATE CHANGE - Wild fires

The recent terrible fires near Bordeaux have caused people to reflect on the effects of climate change - and to get things completely wrong. This has included an article in The Daily Telegraph, which prompts me to set out some simple facts.

Let me get to the key fact straight away. There has been no change in the average level of wild fires in southern Europe since 1980 when we all started to worry about what we then called global warming but now refer to as climate change. Some years have seen more fires (like this year), some less, but the average has remained pretty constant at slightly more than 440,000 hectares a year, admittedly an alarming number, definitely not to be ignored. But it’s important not to get the facts wrong.

What are the reasons for these wild fires? Probably the causes are many and various. But they cannot include climate change. I’m no denier. The planet is getting warmer; each year sees an increase of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. But recent years have seen no increase in the average level of wild fires - or, interestingly, other “extreme weather events” as the saying goes. (Such as hurricanes or tropical cyclones, though we don’t get too many of them in Europe!)

I’m writing this as I suspect that the facts come as a surprise to a lot of people, including some of those brave enough to read my blogs, and definitely including the normally excellent journalist who wrote the article in The Daily Telegraph.

My other reason for writing is to stress that saying the fires aren’t caused by climate change doesn’t remotely meant that they should be ignored. They are a continuing danger and will remain so. Those in the areas concerned, in southern Europe, should - and do - take massive steps to monitor the areas in danger and have fire-fighting facilities available. Sitting here, as I am, in northern Provence, I am always glad to see light aircraft patrolling the skies and keeping a necessary watch.

Tony Herbert

29 July 2026

I am pleased to see in today's Spectator that the distinguished science writer Matt Ridley confirms what I say, namely that it's not climate change that's causing the wildfires. Actually he indicates that worldwide wildfires are getting less frequent as the globe gets warmer. But he also gives various examples of actions by governmental and other authorities that have increased, rather than reduced, the likelihood of fires.

1 August 2026